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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis (Wed 18 Mar 2015)Match played between James Bamber (home) and Mathias Grondin (away).Match won by James Bamber. Result: 11-8,14-12,11-4. Starting level for James Bamber: 11,572, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Mathias Grondin: 6,493, level confidence: 57%. James Bamber to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Mathias Grondin. James Bamber won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Bamber played 52% better than Mathias Grondin in this match. In this case, James Bamber played at level 10,189 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Bamber would normally have been playing at level 10,544 (based on typical behaviour), Mathias Grondin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Bamber changes to 0% and Mathias Grondin changes to +2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Bamber becomes 0% and for Mathias Grondin becomes +1.4%. Given Mathias Grondin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for James Bamber is 0% and for Mathias Grondin is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Bamber: 85%, Mathias Grondin: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Bamber: 78%, Mathias Grondin: 69%. A final adjustment of +4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Bamber: 11,559, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Mathias Grondin: 7,102, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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