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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis (Wed 18 Mar 2015)Match played between Dave Allman (home) and Dave Naish (away).Match won by Dave Allman. Result: 12-10,11-9,11-8. Starting level for Dave Allman: 6,960, level confidence: 32%. Starting level for Dave Naish: 5,486, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Dave Allman to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Dave Naish. Dave Allman won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Allman played 36% better than Dave Naish in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Allman actually played at a level of 7,193 and Dave Naish at a level of 5,308. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Allman changes to +3% and Dave Naish changes to -1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Allman becomes +1.6% and for Dave Naish becomes -0.8%. Given Dave Allman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.7% has been applied to his level change. Given Dave Naish's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Dave Allman is +1.1% and for Dave Naish is -0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Allman: 57%, Dave Naish: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Allman: 55%, Dave Naish: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dave Allman: 7,027, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Dave Naish: 5,447, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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