|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 11 Feb 2015)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Hadrian Stiff (away).Match won by Hadrian Stiff. Result: 11-9,7-11,5-11,5-11:11-5,12-10,11-7:11-8,11-3,11-5:6-11,8-11,10-12:9-11,11-6,11-4,11-7. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 8,909, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Hadrian Stiff: 14,643, level confidence: 63%. Hadrian Stiff to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Luke Bishop. Hadrian Stiff won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hadrian Stiff played 33% better than Luke Bishop in this match. As Hadrian Stiff has played below his allowed range at 12,176, his level reduction is 2.6% before damping. On the assumption that Hadrian Stiff would normally have been playing at level 13,643 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Bishop played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 5.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff changes to -2% and Luke Bishop changes to +5.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff becomes -0.9% and for Luke Bishop becomes +2.1%. Given Hadrian Stiff's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Hadrian Stiff is -0.5% and for Luke Bishop is +1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hadrian Stiff: 79%, Luke Bishop: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hadrian Stiff: 71%, Luke Bishop: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 9,030, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Hadrian Stiff: 14,545, level confidence: 71%. Notes
|