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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Redland Z v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 25 Feb 2015)Match played between Dan West (home) and Eric Garson (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-2:9-5,2-9,9-7,8-10,9-10:3-9,9-4,9-0,9-1:9-1,9-6,9-2:9-1,9-7,9-4. Starting level for Dan West: 13,120, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Eric Garson: 5,639, level confidence: 69%. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Eric Garson. Dan West won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 278% better than Eric Garson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan West actually played at a level of 16,723 and Eric Garson at a level of 4,424. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to +15% and Eric Garson changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes +4.1% and for Eric Garson becomes -5.6%. Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Given Eric Garson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Dan West is +2.5% and for Eric Garson is -4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 89%, Eric Garson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 70%, Eric Garson: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dan West: 13,422, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Eric Garson: 5,414, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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