|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 2 v David Lloyd A (Wed 28 Jan 2015)Match played between Jon Foulds (home) and Simon Hygate (away).Match won by Simon Hygate. Result: 0-9,1-9,1-9. Starting level for Jon Foulds: 3,025, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Hygate: 4,460, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Simon Hygate to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Jon Foulds. Simon Hygate won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Hygate played 278% better than Jon Foulds in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Hygate actually played at a level of 7,141 and Jon Foulds at a level of 1,889. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 60% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 47% and 47% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Hygate changes to +45% and Jon Foulds changes to -47%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Hygate becomes +12.9% and for Jon Foulds becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Simon Hygate is +9.6% and for Jon Foulds is -11%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jon Foulds is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Hygate: 88%, Jon Foulds: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Hygate: 55%, Jon Foulds: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jon Foulds: 2,868, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Simon Hygate: 4,899, level confidence: 55%. Notes
|