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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v Redland Z (Tue 03 Mar 2015)Match played between Tim Arthur (home) and Dan West (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 5-9,3-9,1-9:9-3,9-3,9-4:9-6,9-7,9-3:9-3,9-3,9-1:5-9,9-2,9-3,9-1. Starting level for Tim Arthur: 3,437, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Dan West: 13,422, level confidence: 68%. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 291% better than Tim Arthur. Dan West won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 76% better than Tim Arthur in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dan West was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,356 and 13,422 without affecting his level. In this case, Dan West played at level 7,347 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dan West would normally have been playing at level 8,923 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Arthur played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to 0% and Tim Arthur changes to +9.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes 0% and for Tim Arthur becomes +3.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Dan West is 0% and for Tim Arthur is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 83%, Tim Arthur: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 55%, Tim Arthur: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Arthur: 3,533, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Dan West: 13,402, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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