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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 2 v Redland Z (Wed 04 Feb 2015)Match played between Andy Killey (home) and Dan West (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 1-9,1-9,2-9:5-9,7-9,6-9:7-9,9-2,9-5,1-9,6-9:3-9,4-9,6-9:9-4,8-10,5-9,6-9. Starting level for Andy Killey: 5,050, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Dan West: 13,154, level confidence: 50%. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 160% better than Andy Killey. Dan West won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 164% better than Andy Killey in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan West actually played at a level of 13,243 and Andy Killey at a level of 5,016. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to +0.4% and Andy Killey changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes +0.2% and for Andy Killey becomes 0%. Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Killey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Dan West is 0% and for Andy Killey is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 71%, Andy Killey: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 70%, Andy Killey: 89%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Killey: 5,035, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Dan West: 13,154, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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