|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Redland Z v David Lloyd A (Wed 11 Feb 2015)Match played between Dan West (home) and Rusty Pearce (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 9-3,9-3,9-2:10-8,9-4,9-4:9-2,1-9,0-9,6-9:10-9,5-9,9-7,10-8:10-9,5-9,9-6,5-9,9-7. Starting level for Dan West: 13,154, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 4,893, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 169% better than Rusty Pearce. Dan West won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 86% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dan West was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,767 and 13,154 without affecting his level. In this case, Dan West played at level 9,733 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dan West would normally have been playing at level 10,408 (based on typical behaviour), Rusty Pearce played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to 0% and Rusty Pearce changes to +3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes 0% and for Rusty Pearce becomes +2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Dan West is 0% and for Rusty Pearce is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 83%, Rusty Pearce: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 69%, Rusty Pearce: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dan West: 13,134, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 4,958, level confidence: 73%. Notes
|