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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Tue 17 Mar 2015)Match played between Chris Winzer (home) and Henry Duncanson (away).Match won by Chris Winzer. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-2. Starting level for Chris Winzer: 5,553, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Henry Duncanson: 3,285, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Chris Winzer to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Henry Duncanson. Chris Winzer won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Winzer played 209% better than Henry Duncanson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Winzer actually played at a level of 7,508 and Henry Duncanson at a level of 2,430. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Winzer changes to +26% and Henry Duncanson changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Winzer becomes +7.8% and for Henry Duncanson becomes -7.8%. Given Chris Winzer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Chris Winzer is +5.7% and for Henry Duncanson is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Henry Duncanson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Winzer: 80%, Henry Duncanson: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Winzer: 59%, Henry Duncanson: 64%. A final adjustment of +2.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Winzer: 6,091, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Henry Duncanson: 3,186, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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