|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Lansdown 7 v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 18 Feb 2015)Match played between Lee Jacobs (home) and Jonny Courtaux (away).Match won by Jonny Courtaux. Result: 1-9,5-9,0-9:7-9,5-9,7-9:0-9,6-9,9-10:5-9,9-5,3-9,2-9:6-9,5-9,6-9. Starting level for Lee Jacobs: 2,097, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Jonny Courtaux: 2,957, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Jonny Courtaux to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Lee Jacobs. Jonny Courtaux won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonny Courtaux played 118% better than Lee Jacobs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonny Courtaux actually played at a level of 3,677 and Lee Jacobs at a level of 1,687. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonny Courtaux changes to +17% and Lee Jacobs changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonny Courtaux becomes +6.6% and for Lee Jacobs becomes -8.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Jonny Courtaux is +5% and for Lee Jacobs is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lee Jacobs is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonny Courtaux: 87%, Lee Jacobs: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonny Courtaux: 70%, Lee Jacobs: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lee Jacobs: 1,994, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Jonny Courtaux: 3,098, level confidence: 70%. Notes
|