|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: BAWA A v Redland B (Wed 25 Feb 2015)Match played between Lee Hunt (home) and Ben Dillistone (away).Match won by Ben Dillistone. Result: 4-9,5-9,2-9. Starting level for Lee Hunt: 2,742, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Dillistone: 2,884, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Ben Dillistone to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Lee Hunt. Ben Dillistone won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Dillistone played 57% better than Lee Hunt in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Dillistone actually played at a level of 3,524 and Lee Hunt at a level of 2,244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Dillistone changes to +22% and Lee Hunt changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Dillistone becomes +8% and for Lee Hunt becomes -8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Ben Dillistone is +6% and for Lee Hunt is -5.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lee Hunt is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Dillistone: 84%, Lee Hunt: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Dillistone: 69%, Lee Hunt: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lee Hunt: 2,608, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Ben Dillistone: 3,053, level confidence: 69%. Notes
|