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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Lansdown 7 v David Lloyd Lovecars (Wed 21 Jan 2015)Match played between Lee Jacobs (home) and Chris Wood (away).Match won by Chris Wood. Result: 0-9,0-9,3-9. Starting level for Lee Jacobs: 2,366, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Chris Wood: 3,527, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Chris Wood to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Lee Jacobs. Chris Wood won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Wood played 209% better than Lee Jacobs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Wood actually played at a level of 5,078 and Lee Jacobs at a level of 1,643. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Wood changes to +28% and Lee Jacobs changes to -35%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Wood becomes +9.2% and for Lee Jacobs becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Chris Wood is +6.9% and for Lee Jacobs is -9.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lee Jacobs is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Wood: 89%, Lee Jacobs: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Wood: 62%, Lee Jacobs: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lee Jacobs: 2,250, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Chris Wood: 3,766, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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