|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Workout Harbourside v David Lloyd Lovecars (Wed 04 Mar 2015)Match played between Duncan Higgins (home) and Paul Woodman (away).Match won by Duncan Higgins. Result: 9-0,9-2,9-0. Starting level for Duncan Higgins: 3,585, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Paul Woodman: 1,795, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Duncan Higgins to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Paul Woodman. Duncan Higgins won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duncan Higgins played 278% better than Paul Woodman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Duncan Higgins actually played at a level of 4,932 and Paul Woodman at a level of 1,305. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Higgins changes to +24% and Paul Woodman changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Higgins becomes +8.3% and for Paul Woodman becomes -10.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Duncan Higgins is +6.2% and for Paul Woodman is -7.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Woodman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Higgins: 87%, Paul Woodman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Higgins: 63%, Paul Woodman: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Duncan Higgins: 3,757, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Paul Woodman: 1,707, level confidence: 62%. Notes
|