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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Workout Harbourside v Lansdown 7 (Wed 18 Mar 2015)Match played between Duncan Higgins (home) and Simon Hawkins (away).Match won by Duncan Higgins. Result: 9-1,9-1,9-5. Starting level for Duncan Higgins: 3,751, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Hawkins: 1,545, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Duncan Higgins to win as he is currently playing 143% better than Simon Hawkins. Duncan Higgins won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duncan Higgins played 97% better than Simon Hawkins in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Duncan Higgins was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,415 and 3,751 without affecting his level. In this case, Duncan Higgins played at level 3,064 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Duncan Higgins would normally have been playing at level 3,084 (based on typical behaviour), Simon Hawkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Higgins changes to 0% and Simon Hawkins changes to +0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Higgins becomes 0% and for Simon Hawkins becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Duncan Higgins is 0% and for Simon Hawkins is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Higgins: 87%, Simon Hawkins: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Higgins: 78%, Simon Hawkins: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Duncan Higgins: 3,732, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Simon Hawkins: 1,544, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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