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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: David Lloyd Battle Oats v Weston String Strokers (Wed 14 Jan 2015)Match played between James Jefferson (home) and James Hazzard (away).Match won by James Hazzard. Result: 1-9,7-9,3-9:9-3,9-0,9-0:4-9,0-9,0-9:9-1,9-3,9-3:7-9,2-9,3-9. Starting level for James Jefferson: 1,805, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for James Hazzard: 3,689, level confidence: 61%. James Hazzard to win as he is currently playing 104% better than James Jefferson. James Hazzard won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Hazzard played 57% better than James Jefferson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Hazzard was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,699 and 3,689 without affecting his level. In this case, James Hazzard played at level 3,016 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Hazzard would normally have been playing at level 3,211 (based on typical behaviour), James Jefferson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Hazzard changes to 0% and James Jefferson changes to +4.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Hazzard becomes 0% and for James Jefferson becomes +3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for James Hazzard is 0% and for James Jefferson is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Hazzard: 78%, James Jefferson: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Hazzard: 69%, James Jefferson: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Jefferson: 1,842, level confidence: 64%. Final level for James Hazzard: 3,683, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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