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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: Thornbury C v Weston String Strokers (Wed 28 Jan 2015)Match played between Roland Gregory (home) and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe (away).Match won by Roland Gregory. Result: 8-10,9-7,6-9,9-7,9-1. Starting level for Roland Gregory: 1,703, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,348, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Roland Gregory to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe. Roland Gregory won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roland Gregory played 10% better than Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe in this match. As Roland Gregory has played below his allowed range at 1,559, his level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Roland Gregory would normally have been playing at level 1,673 (based on typical behaviour), Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 5.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roland Gregory changes to -4% and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe changes to +5.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roland Gregory becomes -2.9% and for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Roland Gregory is -2.1% and for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe is +2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roland Gregory: 88%, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roland Gregory: 83%, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roland Gregory: 1,665, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,383, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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