|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: Thornbury C v University of Bath 2 (Wed 11 Mar 2015)Match played between Paul Logan (home) and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 1-9,2-9,4-9. Starting level for Paul Logan: 455, level confidence: 40%. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,415, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 211% better than Paul Logan. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 97% better than Paul Logan in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 727 and 1,415 without affecting his level. In this case, Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played at level 971 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan would normally have been playing at level 1,053 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Logan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to 0% and Paul Logan changes to +4.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes 0% and for Paul Logan becomes +3.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is 0% and for Paul Logan is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 92%, Paul Logan: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 73%, Paul Logan: 50%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Logan: 467, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,413, level confidence: 73%. Notes
|