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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1B: University of Bath 2 v Weston String Strokers (Tue 17 Mar 2015)Match played between Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (home) and Jake Vickery (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 9-4,9-6,9-2. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,413, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Jake Vickery: 946, level confidence: 54%. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Jake Vickery. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 52% better than Jake Vickery in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan actually played at a level of 1,427 and Jake Vickery at a level of 937. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to +0.6% and Jake Vickery changes to -0.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes +0.5% and for Jake Vickery becomes -0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is +0.4% and for Jake Vickery is -0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 85%, Jake Vickery: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 84%, Jake Vickery: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,416, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Jake Vickery: 939, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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