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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2A: University of Bristol Sharks v Westbury David Lloyd B (Tue 24 Feb 2015)Match played between Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner (home) and Vivi B (away).Match won by Vivi B. Result: 1-9,2-9,6-9. Starting level for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 1,181, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Vivi B: 1,191, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Vivi B to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner. Vivi B won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vivi B played 76% better than Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vivi B actually played at a level of 1,573 and Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner at a level of 894. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vivi B changes to +32% and Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vivi B becomes +15.3% and for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Vivi B is +11% and for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner is -10.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Vivi B is limited to +10% and Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vivi B: 87%, Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vivi B: 66%, Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 1,123, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Vivi B: 1,308, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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