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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2A: Redland Capybaras v University of Bristol Sharks (Thu 19 Mar 2015)Match played between Richard Bickers (home) and Joe 'Chip' Walder (away).Match won by Joe 'Chip' Walder. Result: 1-9,1-9,3-9. Starting level for Richard Bickers: 1,056, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe 'Chip' Walder: 1,623, level confidence: 70%. Joe 'Chip' Walder to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Richard Bickers. Joe 'Chip' Walder won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe 'Chip' Walder played 134% better than Richard Bickers in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe 'Chip' Walder actually played at a level of 2,003 and Richard Bickers at a level of 856. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe 'Chip' Walder changes to +18% and Richard Bickers changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe 'Chip' Walder becomes +8.6% and for Richard Bickers becomes -9.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Joe 'Chip' Walder is +6.4% and for Richard Bickers is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Richard Bickers is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe 'Chip' Walder: 83%, Richard Bickers: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe 'Chip' Walder: 68%, Richard Bickers: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Bickers: 1,004, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Joe 'Chip' Walder: 1,725, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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