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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2B: Redland Eagles v BAWA (Thu 12 Feb 2015)Match played between Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (home) and Darren Croker (away).Match won by Darren Croker. Result: 9-1,1-9,9-3,7-9,4-9. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 878, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Darren Croker: 648, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Darren Croker. Darren Croker won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Croker played 8% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darren Croker actually played at a level of 784 and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss at a level of 726. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Croker changes to +14% and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Croker becomes +8.2% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes -10.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Darren Croker is +6.2% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is -7.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Croker: 90%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Croker: 75%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 835, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Darren Croker: 687, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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