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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: University of Bath 3 v Hutton Moor A (Thu 26 Mar 2015)Match played between Miles Jeanneret (home) and Paul McLean (away).Match won by Miles Jeanneret. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 1,802, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Paul McLean: 1,137, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Paul McLean. Miles Jeanneret won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jeanneret played 278% better than Paul McLean in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jeanneret actually played at a level of 2,783 and Paul McLean at a level of 736. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret changes to +40% and Paul McLean changes to -41%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret becomes +15.6% and for Paul McLean becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret is +12% and for Paul McLean is -14%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Miles Jeanneret is limited to +10% and Paul McLean is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jeanneret: 89%, Paul McLean: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jeanneret: 57%, Paul McLean: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 1,979, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Paul McLean: 1,081, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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