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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: Shepton Mallet B v Bath Leisure Squash 1 (Wed 28 Jan 2015)Match played between Adam Sindall-White (home) and Murray Kenneth (away).Match won by Adam Sindall-White. Result: 9-4,9-7,1-9,9-3:9-4,9-5,0-9,9-3:4-9,9-5,7-9,9-0,9-4:9-1,9-0,9-1:9-4,9-1,9-1. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 2,664, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Murray Kenneth: 2,139, level confidence: 66%. Adam Sindall-White to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Murray Kenneth. Adam Sindall-White won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Sindall-White played 20% better than Murray Kenneth in this match. In this case, Adam Sindall-White played at level 2,598 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adam Sindall-White would normally have been playing at level 2,622 (based on typical behaviour), Murray Kenneth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White changes to 0% and Murray Kenneth changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White becomes 0% and for Murray Kenneth becomes +0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White is 0% and for Murray Kenneth is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Sindall-White: 70%, Murray Kenneth: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Sindall-White: 68%, Murray Kenneth: 80%. A final adjustment of -1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 2,605, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Murray Kenneth: 2,136, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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