|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: Gordano B v University of Bath 3 (Wed 01 Apr 2015)Match played between Edwin Swidenbank (home) and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (away).Match won by Edwin Swidenbank. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-4:9-2,9-3,9-1:9-1,9-3,9-7:?-?:?-?. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,947, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,416, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Edwin Swidenbank to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Edwin Swidenbank won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edwin Swidenbank played 118% better than Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edwin Swidenbank actually played at a level of 2,452 and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan at a level of 1,125. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank changes to +22% and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank becomes +9.2% and for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes -7.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank is +6.9% and for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edwin Swidenbank: 75%, Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edwin Swidenbank: 60%, Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 2,077, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,347, level confidence: 70%. Notes
|