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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: Gordano B v University of Bath 3 (Wed 01 Apr 2015)Match played between Steve Gale (home) and Ben Smith (away).Match won by Steve Gale. Result: 9-1,9-3,9-7. Starting level for Steve Gale: 1,447, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Smith: 347, level confidence: 10%. Steve Gale to win as he is currently playing 317% better than Ben Smith. Steve Gale won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Gale played 57% better than Ben Smith in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steve Gale was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 533 and 1,447 without affecting his level. In this case, Steve Gale played at level 711 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Steve Gale would normally have been playing at level 928 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 31%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Gale changes to 0% and Ben Smith changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Gale becomes 0% and for Ben Smith becomes +8.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Steve Gale is 0% and for Ben Smith is +6.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Gale: 92%, Ben Smith: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Gale: 56%, Ben Smith: 19%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve Gale: 1,445, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Ben Smith: 368, level confidence: 19%. Notes
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