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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2C: University of Bath 3 v Gordano B (Tue 10 Mar 2015)Match played between Ben Avison (home) and Rob Ritchie (away).Match won by Rob Ritchie. Result: 0-9,3-9,0-9. Starting level for Ben Avison: 520, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Ritchie: 872, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Rob Ritchie to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Ben Avison. Rob Ritchie won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Ritchie played 209% better than Ben Avison in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Ritchie actually played at a level of 1,184 and Ben Avison at a level of 383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Ritchie changes to +27% and Ben Avison changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Ritchie becomes +14.2% and for Ben Avison becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Rob Ritchie is +10.6% and for Ben Avison is -10.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rob Ritchie is limited to +10% and Ben Avison is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Ritchie: 84%, Ben Avison: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Ritchie: 62%, Ben Avison: 62%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Avison: 496, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Rob Ritchie: 964, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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