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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Redland Fireflies v Workout Harbourside (Tue 20 Jan 2015)Match played between Giles Sharley (home) and Mike Bangham (away).Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-5. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 696, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Mike Bangham: 302, level confidence: 20%. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Mike Bangham. Giles Sharley won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 86% better than Mike Bangham in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Giles Sharley was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 467 and 696 without affecting his level. In this case, Giles Sharley played at level 572 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Giles Sharley would normally have been playing at level 583 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Bangham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to 0% and Mike Bangham changes to +1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes 0% and for Mike Bangham becomes +1.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is 0% and for Mike Bangham is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 85%, Mike Bangham: 45%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 77%, Mike Bangham: 40%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Giles Sharley: 695, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Mike Bangham: 304, level confidence: 40%. Notes
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