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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Keynsham v University of Bristol Fresh (Wed 25 Feb 2015)Match played between Shane Davis (home) and Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb (away).Match won by Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb. Result: 9-5,3-9,9-1,0-9,7-9. Starting level for Shane Davis: 681, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 1,071, level confidence: 47%. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Shane Davis. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb played 10% better than Shane Davis in this match. As Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb has played below his allowed range at 836, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb would normally have been playing at level 1,009 (based on typical behaviour), Shane Davis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb changes to -9.4% and Shane Davis changes to +8.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb becomes -6% and for Shane Davis becomes +5.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb is -4.4% and for Shane Davis is +4.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 69%, Shane Davis: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 57%, Shane Davis: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Shane Davis: 708, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 1,024, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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