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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: University of Bristol Fresh v Redwood Phoenix (Tue 03 Mar 2015)Match played between Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary (home) and Trevor West (away).Match won by Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Result: 9-0,9-0,7-9,9-3. Starting level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 913, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Trevor West: 957, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Trevor West to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary won 75% of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary played 40% better than Trevor West in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary actually played at a level of 1,107 and Trevor West at a level of 789. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary changes to +21% and Trevor West changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary becomes +11.5% and for Trevor West becomes -11.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary is +8.6% and for Trevor West is -8.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Trevor West is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 85%, Trevor West: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 70%, Trevor West: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harris 'The Cleaner' Chaudhary: 991, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Trevor West: 910, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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