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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: University of Bristol Fresh v Workout Harbourside (Thu 05 Feb 2015)Match played between Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb (home) and Greg Richards (away).Match won by Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-3. Starting level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 1,025, level confidence: 32%. Starting level for Greg Richards: 636, level confidence: 50%. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Greg Richards. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb played 209% better than Greg Richards in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb actually played at a level of 1,419 and Greg Richards at a level of 459. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb changes to +29% and Greg Richards changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb becomes +15.2% and for Greg Richards becomes -9.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb is +11% and for Greg Richards is -7.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb is limited to +10% and Greg Richards is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 57%, Greg Richards: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 41%, Greg Richards: 51%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Thomas 'Mr Elastic' Robb: 1,126, level confidence: 41%. Final level for Greg Richards: 605, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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