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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3B: Lansdown 3 v University of Bath 4 (Wed 01 Apr 2015)Match played between John Crocker (home) and Adam McElhone (away).Match won by John Crocker. Result: 9-6,9-3,9-1. Starting level for John Crocker: 1,047, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Adam McElhone: 528, level confidence: 60%. John Crocker to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Adam McElhone. John Crocker won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Crocker played 67% better than Adam McElhone in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that John Crocker was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 784 and 1,047 without affecting his level. In this case, John Crocker played at level 901 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that John Crocker would normally have been playing at level 921 (based on typical behaviour), Adam McElhone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Crocker changes to 0% and Adam McElhone changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Crocker becomes 0% and for Adam McElhone becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for John Crocker is 0% and for Adam McElhone is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Crocker: 87%, Adam McElhone: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Crocker: 80%, Adam McElhone: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for John Crocker: 1,045, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Adam McElhone: 533, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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