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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3B: Lansdown 3 v Colston (Wed 18 Mar 2015)Match played between John Crocker (home) and Bob Young (away).Match won by John Crocker. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-7. Starting level for John Crocker: 1,011, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Bob Young: 445, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. John Crocker to win as he is currently playing 127% better than Bob Young. John Crocker won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Crocker played 76% better than Bob Young in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that John Crocker was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 686 and 1,011 without affecting his level. In this case, John Crocker played at level 816 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that John Crocker would normally have been playing at level 851 (based on typical behaviour), Bob Young played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Crocker changes to 0% and Bob Young changes to +2.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Crocker becomes 0% and for Bob Young becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for John Crocker is 0% and for Bob Young is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Crocker: 90%, Bob Young: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Crocker: 79%, Bob Young: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for John Crocker: 1,009, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Bob Young: 454, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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