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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4A: Kingsdown v Weston Shankers (Wed 04 Mar 2015)Match played between Horst Poeppel (home) and Hannah Brown (away).Match won by Horst Poeppel. Result: 9-0,9-4,9-5. Starting level for Horst Poeppel: 448, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Hannah Brown: 219, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Horst Poeppel to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Hannah Brown. Horst Poeppel won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Horst Poeppel played 76% better than Hannah Brown in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Horst Poeppel was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 328 and 448 without affecting his level. In this case, Horst Poeppel played at level 388 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Horst Poeppel would normally have been playing at level 390 (based on typical behaviour), Hannah Brown played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Horst Poeppel changes to 0% and Hannah Brown changes to +0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Horst Poeppel becomes 0% and for Hannah Brown becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Horst Poeppel is 0% and for Hannah Brown is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Horst Poeppel: 92%, Hannah Brown: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Horst Poeppel: 85%, Hannah Brown: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Horst Poeppel: 447, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Hannah Brown: 219, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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