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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4A: Bradley Stoke Squash Club B v Westbury David Lloyd C (Wed 11 Mar 2015)Match played between Robin Clegg (home) and Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters (away).Match won by Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters. Result: 2-9,3-9,6-9. Starting level for Robin Clegg: 630, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 929, level confidence: 47%. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Robin Clegg. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters played 57% better than Robin Clegg in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters actually played at a level of 959 and Robin Clegg at a level of 611. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters changes to +2.6% and Robin Clegg changes to -1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters becomes +2.6% and for Robin Clegg becomes -1.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters is +2% and for Robin Clegg is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 69%, Robin Clegg: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 66%, Robin Clegg: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Robin Clegg: 621, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 946, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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