|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 17 Jun 2015)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Will Kingwell (away).Match won by Keith Sanzo. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-1. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 5,272, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 5,824, level confidence: 54%. Will Kingwell to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Keith Sanzo. Keith Sanzo won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Sanzo played 106% better than Will Kingwell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Sanzo actually played at a level of 7,958 and Will Kingwell at a level of 3,858. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo changes to +30% and Will Kingwell changes to -48%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo becomes +9% and for Will Kingwell becomes -13%. Given Keith Sanzo's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Keith Sanzo is +5.7% and for Will Kingwell is -7.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Will Kingwell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Sanzo: 92%, Will Kingwell: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Sanzo: 61%, Will Kingwell: 49%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 5,564, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Will Kingwell: 5,538, level confidence: 49%. Notes
|