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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer A v David Lloyd A (Wed 10 Jun 2015)Match played between Konrad Tyma (home) and Emma Chorley (away).Match won by Konrad Tyma. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-7. Starting level for Konrad Tyma: 4,148, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Emma Chorley: 4,561, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Emma Chorley to win as she is currently playing 10% better than Konrad Tyma. Konrad Tyma won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Konrad Tyma played 56% better than Emma Chorley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Konrad Tyma actually played at a level of 5,440 and Emma Chorley at a level of 3,478. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Konrad Tyma changes to +30% and Emma Chorley changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Konrad Tyma becomes +9.3% and for Emma Chorley becomes -9.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Konrad Tyma is +6.1% and for Emma Chorley is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Emma Chorley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Konrad Tyma: 85%, Emma Chorley: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Konrad Tyma: 65%, Emma Chorley: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Konrad Tyma: 4,393, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Emma Chorley: 4,337, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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