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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1A: Thornbury A (Summer) v Weston (Wed 17 Jun 2015)Match played between Rob Livingstone (home) and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe (away).Match won by Rob Livingstone. Result: 15-12,12-15,15-3,15-7. Starting level for Rob Livingstone: 2,441, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,608, level confidence: 60%. Rob Livingstone to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe. Rob Livingstone won 75% of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Livingstone played 35% better than Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe in this match. In this case, Rob Livingstone played at level 2,239 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rob Livingstone would normally have been playing at level 2,317 (based on typical behaviour), Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Livingstone changes to 0% and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe changes to +2.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Livingstone becomes 0% and for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Rob Livingstone is 0% and for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Livingstone: 88%, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Livingstone: 83%, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Livingstone: 2,437, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,630, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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