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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2B: Redland Summer D v Kingsdown Stallions (Wed 27 May 2015)Match played between Richard Masom (home) and Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey (away).Match won by Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey. Result: 9-5,4-9,1-9,0-9. Starting level for Richard Masom: 829, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 1,221, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Richard Masom. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey won 75% of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey played 35% better than Richard Masom in this match. In this case, Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey played at level 1,142 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey would normally have been playing at level 1,167 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Masom played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey changes to 0% and Richard Masom changes to +1.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey becomes 0% and for Richard Masom becomes +1.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey is 0% and for Richard Masom is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 86%, Richard Masom: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 83%, Richard Masom: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Masom: 837, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 1,219, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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