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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2B: Kingsdown Stallions v Redland Summer D (Wed 01 Jul 2015)Match played between James Cook (home) and Giles Sharley (away).Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 3-9,1-9,1-9. Starting level for James Cook: 595, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 898, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 51% better than James Cook. Giles Sharley won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 134% better than James Cook in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Giles Sharley actually played at a level of 1,118 and James Cook at a level of 478. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to +15% and James Cook changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes +8.8% and for James Cook becomes -11%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is +5.7% and for James Cook is -6.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Cook is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 90%, James Cook: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 72%, James Cook: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Cook: 566, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Giles Sharley: 948, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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