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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Redland Summer E v Bradley Stoke Squash Club A (Wed 13 May 2015)Match played between Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (home) and Paul Hockett (away).Match won by Paul Hockett. Result: 0-9,1-9,0-9. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 868, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Paul Hockett: 2,641, level confidence: 54%. Paul Hockett to win as he is currently playing 204% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Paul Hockett won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Hockett played 379% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Hockett actually played at a level of 3,314 and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss at a level of 692. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Hockett changes to +14% and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Hockett becomes +5.7% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes -8.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Paul Hockett is +3.7% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is -5.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Hockett: 73%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Hockett: 58%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 58%. A final adjustment of -2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 789, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Paul Hockett: 2,725, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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