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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Redland Summer E v Shepton Mallet B (Wed 24 Jun 2015)Match played between Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (home) and Matt Amos (away).Match won by Matt Amos. Result: 2-9,9-4,3-9,3-9. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 775, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Matt Amos: 1,101, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Matt Amos to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Matt Amos won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Amos played 29% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss in this match. As Matt Amos has played below his allowed range at 1,004, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Matt Amos would normally have been playing at level 1,060 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Amos changes to 0% and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to +2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Amos becomes -0.1% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes +2.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Matt Amos is 0% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Amos: 87%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Amos: 83%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 786, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Matt Amos: 1,098, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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