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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Redland Summer E v Thornbury C (Summer) (Wed 01 Jul 2015)Match played between Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella (home) and Nigel Tovey (away).Match won by Nigel Tovey. Result: 1-9,3-9,0-9. Starting level for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 962, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Nigel Tovey: 1,738, level confidence: 89%. Set manually. Nigel Tovey to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella. Nigel Tovey won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nigel Tovey played 164% better than Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nigel Tovey actually played at a level of 2,101 and Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella at a level of 796. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nigel Tovey changes to +9.3% and Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nigel Tovey becomes +4.9% and for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella becomes -9%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Nigel Tovey is +3.2% and for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella is -5.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nigel Tovey: 94%, Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nigel Tovey: 78%, Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon ''Turns Up Late' Trivella: 909, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Nigel Tovey: 1,791, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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