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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Redland Summer E v Redwood Phoenix (Wed 03 Jun 2015)Match played between Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (home) and John Watts (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 10-8,9-6,10-8. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 789, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for John Watts: 494, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 60% better than John Watts. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won all of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 29% better than John Watts in this match. As Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss has played below his allowed range at 658, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss would normally have been playing at level 740 (based on typical behaviour), John Watts played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 6.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to -2.6% and John Watts changes to +4.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes -2.6% and for John Watts becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is -1.7% and for John Watts is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 75%, John Watts: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 68%, John Watts: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 775, level confidence: 68%. Final level for John Watts: 505, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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