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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3B: Kingsdown v Westbury David Lloyd C (Wed 17 Jun 2015)Match played between Chris 'League' Adams (home) and Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters (away).Match won by Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters. Result: 7-9,4-9,7-9. Starting level for Chris 'League' Adams: 699, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 914, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Chris 'League' Adams. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters played 34% better than Chris 'League' Adams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters actually played at a level of 926 and Chris 'League' Adams at a level of 690. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters changes to +1.2% and Chris 'League' Adams changes to -1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters becomes +1.2% and for Chris 'League' Adams becomes -1.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters is +0.7% and for Chris 'League' Adams is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 88%, Chris 'League' Adams: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 86%, Chris 'League' Adams: 89%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris 'League' Adams: 693, level confidence: 89%. Final level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 919, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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