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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3B: Bradley Stoke Squash Club B v Westbury David Lloyd C (Wed 03 Jun 2015)Match played between Neil Beetlestone (home) and Ben Winter (away).Match won by Neil Beetlestone. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-2:10-9,9-2,9-6:7-9,9-6,10-9,6-9,9-2:4-9,4-9,5-9. Starting level for Neil Beetlestone: 1,664, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Winter: 1,045, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Neil Beetlestone to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Ben Winter. Neil Beetlestone won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Beetlestone played 278% better than Ben Winter in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Beetlestone actually played at a level of 2,564 and Ben Winter at a level of 678. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Beetlestone changes to +41% and Ben Winter changes to -40%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Beetlestone becomes +16.5% and for Ben Winter becomes -20%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Neil Beetlestone is +10.7% and for Ben Winter is -12%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Neil Beetlestone is limited to +10% and Ben Winter is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Beetlestone: 86%, Ben Winter: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Beetlestone: 56%, Ben Winter: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neil Beetlestone: 1,828, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Ben Winter: 994, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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