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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3B: Bradley Stoke Squash Club B v Kingsdown (Wed 15 Jul 2015)Match played between Mark Stone (home) and Darren Sage (away).Match won by Mark Stone. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-0. Starting level for Mark Stone: 1,066, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Darren Sage: 544, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Mark Stone to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Darren Sage. Mark Stone won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Stone played 379% better than Darren Sage in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Stone actually played at a level of 1,667 and Darren Sage at a level of 348. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Stone changes to +38% and Darren Sage changes to -34%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Stone becomes +18.5% and for Darren Sage becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2015' so the adjustment for Mark Stone is +12% and for Darren Sage is -10.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Stone is limited to +10% and Darren Sage is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Stone: 85%, Darren Sage: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Stone: 55%, Darren Sage: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Stone: 1,171, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Darren Sage: 517, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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