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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd A v David Lloyd B (Wed 19 Aug 2015)Match played between Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey (home) and Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery (away).Match won by Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey. Result: 15-11,15-8,15-11:15-8,8-15,15-11,11-15,15-12. Starting level for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 2,338, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery: 1,413, level confidence: 10%. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey played 52% better than Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery in this match. In this case, Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey played at level 2,159 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey would normally have been playing at level 2,175 (based on typical behaviour), Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey changes to 0% and Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey becomes 0% and for Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery becomes +0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2015' so the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey is 0% and for Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 32%, Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 30%, Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery: 30%. Final level for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 2,338, level confidence: 30%. Final level for Tomtom Barnard/George Montgomery: 1,418, level confidence: 30%. Notes
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