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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v Redland Winter Panthers (Thu 15 Oct 2015)Match played between Rachael Hamp (home) and Jacqui Clinch (away).Match won by Rachael Hamp. Result: 9-4,9-1,9-0. Starting level for Rachael Hamp: 587, level confidence: 21%. Starting level for Jacqui Clinch: 456, level confidence: 38%. Rachael Hamp to win as she is currently playing 29% better than Jacqui Clinch. Rachael Hamp won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rachael Hamp played 134% better than Jacqui Clinch in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rachael Hamp actually played at a level of 791 and Jacqui Clinch at a level of 338. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rachael Hamp changes to +30% and Jacqui Clinch changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rachael Hamp becomes +15.8% and for Jacqui Clinch becomes -8.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2015' so the adjustment for Rachael Hamp is +12% and for Jacqui Clinch is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jacqui Clinch is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rachael Hamp: 46%, Jacqui Clinch: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rachael Hamp: 34%, Jacqui Clinch: 46%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rachael Hamp: 646, level confidence: 34%. Final level for Jacqui Clinch: 434, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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