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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 12 Nov 2015)Match played between Agnes Fontaine (home) and Rachael Hamp (away).Match won by Rachael Hamp. Result: 0-9,6-9,1-9. Starting level for Agnes Fontaine: 447, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Rachael Hamp: 589, level confidence: 54%. Rachael Hamp to win as she is currently playing 32% better than Agnes Fontaine. Rachael Hamp won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rachael Hamp played 97% better than Agnes Fontaine in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rachael Hamp actually played at a level of 720 and Agnes Fontaine at a level of 366. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rachael Hamp changes to +19% and Agnes Fontaine changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rachael Hamp becomes +10.6% and for Agnes Fontaine becomes -10.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2015' so the adjustment for Rachael Hamp is +8% and for Agnes Fontaine is -7.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Agnes Fontaine is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rachael Hamp: 73%, Agnes Fontaine: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rachael Hamp: 60%, Agnes Fontaine: 59%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Agnes Fontaine: 432, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Rachael Hamp: 629, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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