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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v Weston (Thu 22 Oct 2015)Match played between Amy Douglas (home) and Caroline Taylor (away).Match won by Amy Douglas. Result: 9-4,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Amy Douglas: 751, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Caroline Taylor: 557, level confidence: 69%. Amy Douglas to win as she is currently playing 35% better than Caroline Taylor. Amy Douglas won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Amy Douglas played 134% better than Caroline Taylor in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Amy Douglas actually played at a level of 989 and Caroline Taylor at a level of 423. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Amy Douglas changes to +27% and Caroline Taylor changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Amy Douglas becomes +14.3% and for Caroline Taylor becomes -8.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Winter 2015' so the adjustment for Amy Douglas is +10.7% and for Caroline Taylor is -6.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Amy Douglas is limited to +10% and Caroline Taylor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Amy Douglas: 65%, Caroline Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Amy Douglas: 49%, Caroline Taylor: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Amy Douglas: 819, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Caroline Taylor: 530, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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